What are the "Vegas Number Confidences"?

Each team has a "Vegas Number," which is the number of wins that you can place a bet on a team either finishing with more wins than (the "Over") or with fewer wins than (the "Under").

Our Vegas Number Confidences represent the number of simulations of the upcoming season that resulted in a team ending up Over or Under their Vegas Number (controlling somewhat for outliers, we toss out any results more then two standard deviations off the mean).

So when we say "Oakland Athletics: 83.0 Wins (95.0% Over)", what that means is that in 95% of THOME's simulated seasons, the A's finished with more than 83.0 wins. This is a pretty high confidence. On the other hand, if we say "Philadelphia Phillies: 83.0 Wins (55% Under)" then in 55% of THOME's simulations, the Phillies ended up with fewer than 83 wins. But this isn't very confident. The Vegas Number is probably very close to where the Phillies will end up after the season ends.

The idea here is that higher confidences represent a more attractive wagering opportunity. They're the teams on which THOME and Vegas most strongly disagree.